To Infinity And Beyond!
Who knew that infinity stopped at 135? Two weeks ago this Friday, NASA launched the last mission of the undeniably iconic Space Shuttle program. While I'm sure plenty of older folks associate NASA with Apollo, the program that put man on the moon but for us children of the 80s and 90s, the Space Shuttle was our ticket to the stars.
But now it's gone, and with it, the promise of government-sponsored manned spaceflight, at least for the near future. Sure NASA still has interesting programs - the Juno Project, the Cassini-Huygens Mission, the Mars Science Laboratory, even the ARES Rocket - but all of those efforts are about bringing there to us, not taking us to there. As of a fortnight ago, tomorrow's scientists and science fiction authors were relegated to thinking about sitting at home while robotic instruments boldly go where no man has gone before (and probably won't for the foreseeable future).
Sure, we could go to the moon, AGAIN. But what are we really proving by reaccomplishing what we were succeeded at over 40 years ago (and with much less sophiscated equipment). Or we could try for Venus, if you like 872°F balls of carbon dioxide and sulfuric acid. It's slight but there is a difference between sending a man to his death and sending a man on a very dangerous mission. Astronauts are crazy, not stupid.
Mars it is, then. But who will be first in line when NASA finally decides to get going?
To answer that question, I went to seven of the genre's best scientific speculators - writers who either specialize in science fiction (both near and far) or who spend their careers inching toward further technological innovation. The type of men and women who spend most of their waking hours thinking about where humanity goes next. And I asked them:
1a. If you were offered a chance to be the first person on Mars with supplies to set up a one-person self sustaining Marsbase (with the caveat that it was a one way trip and no guarantee that the mission would be successful), would you take it?
1b. If not, what would need to happen to get you on that spaceship? [It can be anything (a billion dollars for your family, a guarantee of safe arrival, a lifetime's worth of supplies, a colony of a thousand fellow travelers, a comet headed toward Earth) except the chance to return to Earth again.]
1c. Assuming we get you one planet down the line, what would be your version of "one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind"?
Find out who answered, and exactly what they said, after the jump.
Charles Stross is a Hugo award winning SF&F author whose work can only be summed up as anything but ordinary. While Stross dabbles in Fantasy and Lovecraftian Horror from time to time, he's most well known for his near-future and post-singularity speculations including the excellent Singularity Sky and Iron Sunrise. Stross's latest book is the highly ungoogleable Rule 34, a near future techno-thriller written entirely in 2nd Person perspective. You can find out more about Stross at his blog, where he writes about anything he damn well pleases, including an excellent (and very applicable) piece about the future of space colonization.
SoY: If you were offered a chance to be the first person on Mars with the caveat that it was a one way trip with 1 year's worth of supplies (and no guarantee that the mission would be successful, would you take it?
CS: Absolutely not!
I am a risk-averse middle-aged male with health issues. I'm also fairly gregarious; I like company. Finally, I'm in no way qualified to get any use out of that one-way trip -- I'm not a geologist or a planetary scientist of any kind.
Basically you just offered to dump me in the middle of a desert more inhospitable than the Dead Zone on Everest with only enough supplies and air to last one year and no way to come home. No thanks!
SoY: If not, what would need to happen to get you on that spaceship? [It can be anything (i.e. a million dollars for your family, a guarantee of safe arrival, a lifetime's worth of supplies, a colony of a thousand fellow travelers) except the chance to return to Earth again.
CS: There is no reasonable incentive that would get me aboard that spaceship willingly.
Unreasonable incentives -- a convincing threat to kill me if I refuse to go -- might work.
But in general, I'm happy where I am. Go pick your pioneer somewhere else.
[Note: Charles Stross declined to answer the third part of the question]
SoY: If you were offered a chance to be the first person on Mars with supplies to set up a one-person self sustaining Marsbase (with the caveat that it was a one way trip and no guarantee that the mission would be successful), would you take it?
IT: Nope.
Sometimes even Earth can be a terribly lonely place. But at least here there are a few billion people with whom I can attempt to form some human connection. I don't imagine the conversations with fossil bacteria (if they exist) and dead robots would be much of a salve. The vistas would be magnificent, and the thrill of being the first person to see them first-hand would be amazing... but I wouldn't have anybody with whom to share the delight. Just some staticky voices on the radio. And I'd miss the color green. (Assuming we're not talking about a completely terraformed Mars.)
I like to explore the world in my own little ways. But no thrill of discovery would trump, for me, the terror of being irrevocably alone forever. Which is a completely weird thing for me to say, given that I'm such an incurable hermit anyway. I guess I need to know that safety net exists.
SoY: If not, what would need to happen to get you on that spaceship? [It can be anything (a billion dollars for your family, a guarantee of safe arrival, a lifetime's worth of supplies, a colony of a thousand fellow travelers, a comet headed toward Earth) except the chance to return to Earth again.]*
IT: I think that entire list would be a good start... I'd want to know that the people I left behind would be forever comfortable and cared for. I'd want to know that I wouldn't starve to death. More than anything I'd want to be part of a community when I arrived. But even then, I just don't know that I'd do it.
But if Earth faced imminent destruction and my choices were either Mars or death, I suppose I'd pick Mars. Unless I was particularly grumpy on the day I had to choose.
SoY: Assuming we get you one planet down the line, what would be your version of "/one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind?
IT: Knowing me, it would probably be, "Ouch," as I tripped down the ladder.
And then maybe some cursing. Or perhaps followed by panic about the damage to my space suit. That would be dignified, wouldn't it?
SoY: If you were offered a chance to be the first person on Mars with supplies to set up a one-person self sustaining Marsbase (with the caveat that it was a one way trip and no guarantee that the mission would be successful), would you take it?
TK: Like any sci-fi writer worth his salt, I’ve been contemplating this exact scenario for years and have long had a go-bag packed and sitting by the door while I wait for the phone to ring. I actually think I’m temperamentally inclined toward just such a mission (NASA, if you’re listening?), but I do realize that accepting such a job would be the equivalent of taking a plea deal for life in solitary confinement. From what I’ve read, humans tend to go insane in prolonged solitary. I don’t think I’d prefer to go insane (nor would it benefit the mission), so now that I’m a bit older, certain caveats would be required before I’d actually climb aboard a one-way rocket.
SoY: If not, what would need to happen to get you on that spaceship? [It can be anything (a billion dollars for your family, a guarantee of safe arrival, a lifetime's worth of supplies, a colony of a thousand fellow travelers, a comet headed toward Earth) except the chance to return to Earth again.]
TK: If it was truly a one-way trip, I’d need my family to come along. And if I’m thinking ahead, I’d need a certain critical mass of other unrelated families (the more genetically diverse, the better) to come along as well. While the trip may be one-way, I’m not sure that a whole lot is gained by sending and handful of folks to some distant, barren landscape to die off like a space-age reenactment of the Vikings in Greenland. It would be better, I think, to be a part of a colony large enough to have a chance to expand and leave something of itself behind. I’d sign up for that. Though I tremble to think what strange founder effects my presence might create in the future gene pool of Martians.
SoY: Assuming we get you one planet down the line, what would be your version of "one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind"?
TK: --Sheesh, that’s pressure. I’d probably say something like, “Please don’t let me screw this up,” or “With this step, Mankind finds a new home,” or “Just try to collect those parking tickets now!”
SoY: If you were offered a chance to be the first person on Mars with supplies to set up a one-person self sustaining Marsbase (with the caveat that it was a one way trip and no guarantee that the mission would be successful), would you take it?
JS: Absolutely. Somebody has to do something, rather than just sitting around whining about the state of the planet. Oh wait, did I say that? Yes, I did. So it might as well be me.
SoY: If not, what would need to happen to get you on that spaceship? [It can be anything (a billion dollars for your family, a guarantee of safe arrival, a lifetime's worth of supplies, a colony of a thousand fellow travelers, a comet headed toward Earth) except the chance to return to Earth again.]
JS: All I need is the chance. But if I could specify a very nice option, it would be to have a very high chance of safe arrival. (As in, not 20% or 30%, but 90% or higher.)
SoY: Assuming we get you one planet down the line, what would be your version of "one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind"?
JS: Um, serious lack of inspiration here. "What took us so long?" is what comes to mind.
SoY: If you were offered a chance to be the first person on Mars with supplies to set up a one-person self sustaining Marsbase (with the caveat that it was a one way trip and no guarantee that the mission would be successful), would you take it?
LB: When I was 25, yes. Now, no. I couldn’t leave my daughter and my husband. Too big a risk and no chance of return? Couldn’t do it.
Parenthood, man, it’s like mind-control alien parasite infestation. It changes you.
SoY: If not, what would need to happen to get you on that spaceship? [It can be anything (a billion dollars for your family, a guarantee of safe arrival, a lifetime's worth of supplies, a colony of a thousand fellow travelers, a comet headed toward Earth) except the chance to return to Earth again.]
LB: It would have to be to save all life on Earth, including my daughter’s. Self-sacrifice for the win!
SoY: Assuming we get you one planet down the line, what would be your version of "one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind"?
LB: We’re here because we imagined we could be. Because we were curious enough and foolish enough to try.
SoY: If you were offered a chance to be the first person on Mars with supplies to set up a one-person self sustaining Marsbase (with the caveat that it was a one way trip and no guarantee that the mission would be successful), would you take it?
DA: Hell no. That's like asking if I'd sign up for a life of solitary confinement.
SoY: If not, what would need to happen to get you on that spaceship? [It can be anything (a billion dollars for your family, a guarantee of safe arrival, a lifetime's worth of supplies, a colony of a thousand fellow travelers, a comet headed toward Earth) except the chance to return to Earth again.]
DA: Enough infrastructure for a community, safe travel, and a pleasant day-to-day life when I got there.
SoY: Assuming we get you one planet down the line, what would be your version of "one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind"?
DA: "There is no limit to what can be achieved with properly motivated housemonkeys."
SoY: If you were offered a chance to be the first person on Mars with supplies to set up a one-person self sustaining Marsbase (with the caveat that it was a one way trip and no guarantee that the mission would be successful), would you take it?
JS: It's a romantic idea and might have appealed to me at one time, before I understood the reality of being alone. As a kid, I watched "Robinson Crusoe On Mars" and considered the idea cool -- but even that fantasy was tempered by the knowledge that a rescue mission from Earth would eventually show up, and all the Paul Mantee character had to do was survive during the interim.
SoY: If not, what would need to happen to get you on that spaceship? [It can be anything (a billion dollars for your family, a guarantee of safe arrival, a lifetime's worth of supplies, a colony of a thousand fellow travelers, a comet headed toward Earth) except the chance to return to Earth again.]
JS: Anything? Then, sure, a large self-sustaining colony of interesting people, female companionship, useful work, etc. Also, communication with Earth, if not actual visits home. I might go for that -- but not until I'd done and seen a few more things on the home planet.
SoY: Assuming we get you one planet down the line, what would be your version of "one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind"?
JS: "Mars is beautiful, but I forgot my toothbrush."
So how about you? Would you be the first one to sign up for a mission to Mars?
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